Does the 2024 US presidential election outcome matter to China?

Rhetoric aside, it might not be that significant for China whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the November US elections, writes Prof Joseph Liow, CoHaSS Dean and RSIS Senior Research Advisor, in a commentary. Domestic concerns remain paramount, but if campaign rhetoric is any indication, they have fused seamlessly with political narratives regarding China, specifically, how the latter has apparently stolen American jobs and intellectual property, ergo the need for tariffs and industrial policy. Ultimately, the arid reality is that for China, it matters little who wins the White House in November. Indeed, it is just as well that Chinese leaders are under no illusion that either of the US presidential election candidates are prepared to dial down the confrontational tone towards China. The fact is that neither will. But at least the acceptance of this will hopefully mean a more realistic view of what can or cannot be achieved in the search for robust guardrails over the next four years.

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