Program

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TUESDAY, 21 FEBRUARY 2012
Session 1 – Opening Session
0800Registration and Arrival
0840Introductory Remarks
Prof Tso-Chien Pan
Executive Director, ICRM, NTU, Singapore
0850Welcome Address
Prof Freddy Boey
Provost, NTU, Singapore
0900Address
H.E. Dato’ Misran Karmain, Deputy Secretary-General of ASEAN,
ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (ASCC)
0910Address
Guest-of-Honor: Mr S.R. Nathan
Sixth President of Republic of Singapore
0930Presentation 1: 10 Great Risks
Prof Haresh Shah, Founding Chairman, Advisory Board, ICRM;
Member of the Board of Trustees, NTU; Emeritus Professor, Stanford
University; Chairman, Asia Risk Centre Inc., Singapore
Founder & Senior Advisor, RMS Inc., USA
0950Morning Refreshment
Session 2 – Thoughts on Black Swan Events
1020Presentation 2: In Search of Black Swans
Prof Danny Ralph, Academic Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk
Studies, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, UK
1040Presentation 3: Black and Red Swans
Dr Gordon Woo, Adjunct Professor, Institute of Catastrophe Risk
Management, NTU, Singapore; Catastrophe Risk Consultant, RMS, Inc., UK
1100Presentation 4: Mediterranean Volcano Risk – Black Swan Does Not Exist
Prof Domenico Giardini, Professor, Seismology and Geodynamics,
ETH Zurich; Director, Swiss Earthquake Research Center, Switzerland;
President, National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Italy
1120Presentation 5: Impacts of Climate-Related Black Swan Events on Food Security in South East Asia
Dr Roman Hohl, Head Agriculture Asia Pacific, Swiss Reinsurance Company, Singapore
1140Panel Discussion 1
Session Chairman:
Prof Su Guaning,
President Emeritus, NTU, Singapore

Panelists:
  • Prof Haresh Shah, Founding Chairman, Advisory Board, ICRM;
    Member of the Board of Trustees, NTU; Emeritus Professor,
    Stanford University; Chairman, Asia Risk Centre Inc., Singapore
    Founder & Senior Advisor, RMS Inc., USA
  • Prof Danny Ralph, Academic Director, Cambridge Centre for Risk
    Studies, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, UK
  • Dr Gordon Woo, Adjunct Professor, Institute of Catastrophe Risk
    Management, NTU, Singapore; Catastrophe Risk Consultant,
    RMS, Inc., UK
  • Prof Domenico Giardini, Professor, Seismology and Geodynamics,
    ETH Zurich; Director, Swiss Earthquake Research Center,
    Switzerland; President, National Institute of Geophysics and
    Volcanology, Italy
  • Dr Roman Hohl, Head Agriculture Asia Pacific, Swiss Reinsurance
    Company, Singapore
1210Lunch
Session 3 – Asia’s Recent Black Swan Events
1310Presentation 6: Overview of the 1991 Eruption of Pinatubo Volcano and its Aftermath
Ms Perla J. Delos Reyes, Supervising Science Research Specialist
Geology and Geophysics Research and Development Division
Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), Philippines
1330Presentation 7: Monsoon Flood of 2010 in Pakistan: Climate, Population, Land-Use, and Hazard
Prof Charng Ning Chen, Emeritus Professor, School of Civil &
Environmental Engineering, NTU, Singapore
1350Presentation 8: The Great Eastern Japan Earthquake
– What I have been learning from the latest Black Swan event in Japan
Mr Takashi Kanemori, Director and Senior Executive Officer, OYO Corporation, Japan
1410Presentation 9: The Great Thailand Flood 2011: Looking Back and Looking Forward
Dr Seree Supratid, Director, Centre on Climate Change and Disaster
Rangsit University, Thailand
1430Panel Discussion 2:
Session Chairman:
Prof Kusnowidjaja Megawati,
Principle Investigator, Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS), NTU;
School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, NTU, Singapore

Panelists:
  • Ms Perla J. Delos Reyes, Supervising Science Research Specialist,
    Geology and Geophysics Research and Development Division,
    Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS),
    Philippines
  • Mr Takashi Kanemori, Director and Senior Executive Officer,
    OYO Corporation, Japan
  • Prof Charng Ning Chen,Emeritus Professor, School of Civil &
    Environmental Engineering, NTU, Singapore
  • Dr Seree Supratid, Director, Centre on Climate Change and
    Disaster, Rangsit University, Thailand
1500Afternoon Refreshment
Session 4 – Future Black Swan Events
- Challenges and Plans for ASEAN Countries I
1530Presentation 10: Health Pandemics – From Black Swans To …?
Dr Pane Stojanovski, Adjunct Professor, Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, NTU, Singapore;
Executive Director, Asia Risk Centre, Inc. Singapore
1550Presentation 11: Food Pandemic: The Coming Shortfall
Dr Auguste Boissonnade, Chief Technology Officer, Asia Risk Centre, Inc.,
Singapore
1610Presentation 12: Potential Threat of Magnitude 8.7
Earthquake at South of Sunda Strait, Indonesia
Dr P. J. Prih Harjadi, Deputy Director General for Geophysics,
Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency of Indonesia,
Indonesia
1640Panel Discussion 3
Session Chairman:
Prof Edmond Lo, Deputy Director, Maritime Institute
@ NTU; School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, NTU, Singapore

Panelists:
  • Dr Pane Stojanovski, Adjunct Professor, Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, NTU, Singapore;
    Executive Director, Asia Risk Centre, Inc, Singapore
  • Dr Auguste Boissonnade, Chief Technology Officer, Asia Risk Centre, Inc., Singapore
  • Dr P. J. Prih Harjadi, Deputy Director General for Geophysics,
    Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency of Indonesia,
    Indonesia
1710End of Day 1 Symposium
1830Symposium Dinner @ Singapore Flyer
WEDNESDAY, 22 FEBRUARY 2012
Session 5 – Black Swan Events & Insurance
0900Presentation 13: Black Swan Events and the
Reinsurance Industry of Asia
Dr Suzanne Corona, Head - Natural Perils, Asia Capital Reinsurance
Group, Singapore
0920Presentation 14: Black Swan - a Reinsurance
Intermediary’s Perspective
Mr Vinod Krishnan, Chief Executive Officer, Aon Benfield Asia Pte Ltd,
Singapore
0940Presentation 15: Actually Grey Swans
Mr Scott Ryrie, Former Chief Executive Officer of Allianz SE Reinsurance
Branch Asia-Pacific, Singapore
1000Morning Refreshment
1030Presentation 16: Insurance, Systemic Risk and
Black Swan
Ms Priya Nandita Pooran, Visiting Fellow, The Lauterpacht Centre for
International Law, University of Cambridge, UK; Barrister-at-law (UK);
Attorney-at-law (NY), USA
1050Presentation 17: Systemic Risk and the Global
Financial Crisis
Mr Andrew Wong, Co-Chief Investment Officer, Convex Strategies Group
at Fortress Investment, Singapore
1110Panel Discussion 4
Session Chairman:
Mr George Attard,Managing Director,
Head of Aon Benfield Analytics, Aon Benfield Asia , Singapore

Panelists:
  • Dr Suzanne Corona, Head - Natural Perils, Asia Capital Reinsurance
    Group, Singapore
  • Mr Vinod Krishnan, Chief Executive Officer, Aon Benfield Asia
    Pte Ltd, Singapore
  • Mr Scott Ryrie, Former Chief Executive Officer of Allianz SE
    Reinsurance Branch Asia-Pacific, Singapore
  • Ms Priya Nandita Pooran, Visiting Fellow, The Lauterpacht Centre for
    International Law, University of Cambridge, UK; Barrister-at-law
    (UK); Attorney-at-law (NY), USA
  • Mr Andrew Wong, Co-Chief Investment Officer, Convex Strategies
    Group at Fortress Investment, Singapore
1145Lunch
Session 6 – Future Black Swan Events
- Challenges and Plans for ASEAN Countries II
1300Presentation 18: Terrorism Risk in ASEAN: Preparing
for Black Swan Events
Prof Rohan Gunaratna, Professor of Security Studies; Head,
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, S.
Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU, Singapore
1320Presentation 19: Is the Frequency of Intense Typhoons
Increasing under Global Warming?
Prof Johnny C.L. Chan, Chair Professor of Atmospheric Science;
Dean, School of Energy and Environment; Director, Guy Carpenter
Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, Hong Kong SAR
1340Presentation 20: Black Swan Threats: The Cambridge-
NTU System Shock Project
Dr Gary Bowman, Research Associate, Cambridge Centre for Risk
Studies, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, UK
1400Presentation 21: Damages and Rehabilitation of
Disaster Caused by the 2009 Typhoon Morakot
Prof Benson Hsiung, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences,
Taiwan; Section Chief, CECI Engineering Consulting Inc., Taiwan
1420Panel Discussion 5
Session Chairman:
Prof Tso-Chien Pan, Executive Director, ICRM,
NTU, Singapore

Panelists:
  • Prof Rohan Gunaratna, Professor of Security Studies; Head,
    International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research,
    S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU, Singapore
  • Prof Johnny C.L. Chan, Chair Professor of Atmospheric Science;
    Dean, School of Energy and Environment; Director, Guy Carpenter
    Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, Hong Kong SAR
  • Dr Gary Bowman, Research Associate, Cambridge Centre for Risk
    Studies, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, UK
  • Prof Benson Hsiung, National Kaohsiung University of Applied
    Sciences, Taiwan; Section Chief, CECI Engineering Consulting
    Inc., Taiwan
1450Afternoon Refreshment
Session 7 – Black Swan Events – Perspectives from ASEAN
1520Presentation 22: Impact of Tropical Storm “Sendong”
(Washi) in Southern Philippines: Lessons and
Strategies for Disaster Risk Reduction
Mr Edgardo J. Ollet, Chief of Operations, National Disaster Risk
Reduction and Management Council-Office of Civil Defense Operations
Center, Philippines
1540Presentation 23: Regional Cooperation during Black
Swan Events: Thailand Prospective
Ms Pannapa Na Nan, Policy and Plan Analyst, Research and
International Cooperation Bureau, Department of Disaster Prevention
and Mitigation, Thailand
1600Panel Discussion 6
Session Chairman:
Prof Haresh Shah, Founding Chairman, Advisory
Board, ICRM; Member of the Board of Trustees, NTU; Emeritus
Professor, Stanford University; Chairman, Asia Risk Centre Inc.,
Singapore; Founder & Senior Advisor, RMS Inc., USA

Panelists:
Representatives from ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management (ACDM)
1700Close of Symposium
Prof Tso-Chien Pan, Executive Director, ICRM, NTU, Singapore