Confronting climate change

Southeast Asia is now better prepared for natural hazards like earthquakes since the  Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS), an NTU research centre, was set up in 2008. But what if a quake strikes in the midst of a heatwave caused by climate change?

EOS will increasingly have to tackle issues like this one, says the centre’s director, Prof Benjamin Horton. An AXA Nanyang Chair in Natural Hazards, Prof Horton is also a Professor of Earth Science at NTU’s Asian School of the Environment (ASE). He has been studying sea level rise for over 25 years. He is the lead investigator of the Climate Transformation Programme, launched by NTU in December 2023 and hosted by EOS to conduct interdisciplinary climate research.

From 2018 to 2021, he was an editor for the Sixth Assessment Report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and is now involved in developing the next report. He also led Singapore’s first scientific mission to Antarctica in February 2023.

Prof Horton shares his views on climate change and EOS’s work in this Pushing Frontiers interview.

Q. What is the biggest environmental challenge cities face?

A. The key challenge for cities is their lack of resilience to the threats of climate change, be they rising temperatures, rainfalls or sea levels. The hazards cities face like flooding and heatwaves are exacerbated by climate change, more people migrating to cities daily and cities not well equipped to manage all this. By finding ways for cities to function sustainably, we will help the Earth function sustainably too.

Q. Why is this challenge a problem for Singapore?

A. For any island nation, sea level rise from melting ice sheets is an existential threat. A third of Singapore’s coastline is just above the highest of high tides. So any change in sea levels has a dramatic impact. And in Singapore, you cannot move inland. Other climate risks include the impact of extreme rainfall on critical infrastructure, heatwaves on outdoor jobs and droughts that affect Singapore’s trade and security.

Q. How has EOS’s role evolved over the years in the wake of climate change?

A. EOS was set up after the highly destructive 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami to better understand the processes that cause devastating earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Over the past 15 years, the centre has improved the resilience of cities, ecosystems and rural areas in Southeast Asia to earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis, as well as climate change.

With 170 monitoring stations in eight countries, we can now better forecast future natural hazards, such as the size and frequency of earthquakes. As the climate change threat became more urgent, EOS pivoted towards addressing issues like how high sea levels will rise and how hot urban areas will be. We must now also think about compound hazards, like when earthquakes strike during heatwaves.

Q. What is one notable EOS study on climate change?

A. Cheryl Tay, a Singaporean PhD student at EOS and ASE, used innovative satellite imagery to identify the rate at which the 50 largest cities in the world are sinking. Cities sinking the fastest are most susceptible to rising sea levels linked to climate change. A paper on this was published in 2022.

Although international organisations were studying other issues of sea level rise, none were looking into sinking lands. So, Cheryl quickly became a world-leading expert on the matter.

Q. What is the most startling discovery about sea level rise that you have made?

A. Scientists previously believed that sea levels had risen more quickly than before but had no supporting data. Ten years ago, my team found accurate records from geological data going back thousands of years that proved the 20th century’s rise in sea levels was unprecedented and driven by human activity. We identified that the rate of sea level rise since the industrial revolution in the 1850s was faster than anything we had seen for the past 2,000 years. 

The discovery was so important that then-United States president Barack Obama cited it in his State of the Union Address in 2015.

Q. How is EOS tackling the anticipated problems of climate change?

A. Climate research is moving increasingly into issues such as a changing climate’s impact on temperatures and rainfall, and the knock-on effects in areas like biodiversity, finance and healthcare. It means figuring out how to monitor these impacts with innovative methods, such as artificial intelligence and remote sensors located far away, as well as involving regional stakeholders and interdisciplinary researchers.

That is the basis of the new flagship Climate Transformation Programme that NTU launched, which is funded by Singapore’s Ministry of Education. 

Q. How is the Climate Transformation Programme different from other climate studies?

A. The programme is not just based on traditional science, technology, engineering and mathematics disciplines. We are including the social sciences, humanities and the arts for people and the economy too.

We are thinking about how we can get policymakers and public-private partnerships to understand the impacts of a changing climate on areas like healthcare and financial systems. For example, we are studying the effects of El Niño such as higher temperatures, worsened by climate change, on financial markets in Southeast Asia.

We are also thinking about how we can better communicate the impact of climate change through mediums like film and sound, while studying issues such as climate misinformation.

These efforts are important because the status quo of authoring climate change academic papers and policy reports to get people to act has not worked. We can find suitable solutions only by agreeing to act together. We must first create a shared narrative on tackling the climate crisis, where the social and economic benefits are clear.

Second, we need to build trust and improve communication between sectors, regions and communities involved in climate action, and strengthen accountability for commitments to net-zero emissions.

Third, and most importantly, we must link those most responsible for environmental damage to those most affected by it.

The article appeared first in NTU's research and innovation magazine Pushing Frontiers (issue #24, October 2024).